Whipsaw Wednesday – The View from Dow 22,000

Wheeeeeee – This is fun!  

Dow 22,000 is our shorting spot (predicted last week) and we hit that that yesterday after Apple (AAPL) announced their earnings and popped $10 after hours, adding 85 points to the Dow.  This gave institutional sellers the perfect cover to dump everything else and the index is back below 21,950, despite Apple's help.  50 points on the Dow (/YM) Futures is $250 (you're welcome) but we can do much better than that and we will be taking advantage of today's pop to add to our hedges (while it's cheap) and that's for Members Only but, for you, the cheapskate reader, we can give you a new hedging idea using the Dow Ultra-Short (DXD), which is a 2x inverse ETF:

  • Buy 100 DXD Oct $11 calls for 0.45 ($4,500)
  • Sell 100 DXD Oct $13 calls for 0.12 ($1,200) 
  • Sell 5 AAPL 2019 $120 puts for $4 ($2,000) 

DXD is at $11.24 so in the money and $13 is $1.66 away or 15% so a 7.5% drop in the Dow will pay you back $2 x 10,000 options (100 per contract) or $20,000 and the net cost of the spread is $1,300.  That's a profit of $18,700 (1,438%) if the Dow drops 7.5%, and stays down, into the October expirations.  You are obligating yourself to buy 500 shares of AAPL at $120 ($60,000) so make sure you REALLY want to own AAPL if it drops 20% but, chances are your will be safe with that bet if the Dow stays up and, if the Dow falls and puts AAPL in the money, then you have an extra $20,000 to buy the shares with!  

Meanwhile, we could not be more pleased with the AAPL options we do have.  AAPL is the largest holding in our Options Opportunity Portfolio and we had already gained $15,800 on our net $5,600 credit position so up $21,400 but that's nothing as our profit potential for AAPL is $185,600 so we're merely "on track" to our goal of $170.  No wonder the Options Opportunity Portfolio is up 200% in two years!  

We will have to roll out the short callers but,
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