Why Bother Wednesday? Low Volumes Ahead of the Holiday

July 4th Week ProductivityThere's not much going on this week.

It's only a holiday for the US tomorrow but so may people take vacations this week and the people not on vacation are planning parties and such and no one is in the mood to work – so very little goes on.  Even as I go through the news I find a lot fewer articles being published – writers take time off as well.  So no one is making news and no one is reporting news and Trump is distracted by his parade – let's just sit back and enjoy the quiet...

I didn't find a chart for a Thursday July 4th but that's probably just a flatline into the weekend – this is usually the week I take my family on vacation but my girls are getting older and have plans with friends and we'll do a family thing next month (when it's less convenient for me).  Anyone who's been a boss knows this week is second only to Christmas in not getting anything accomplished but there is a Non-Farm Payroll Report on Friday, for some reason, so we can't completely ignore the markets.  

The Futures are up a bit this morning as Europe has nominated the IMF's Christine Lagarde to replace Draghi at the ECB.  I don't think Lagarde is going to be quite the dove they think she will be as she's been quick to lend money to struggling nations but does not sit on the lap of Goldman Sachs, as Draghi did (his previous employer).  A truly independend ECB would be a great thing – but not so much for the markets.  

Meanwhile, my theme of the week is gathering steam as now 82% of the companies pre-announcing earnings revisions are guiding down and Analysts have now downgraded the most stocks since June of 2017, though that's not really something to worry about since 2017 was a great year where we barely dipped.  It's the fact that we're getting worse and worse that should be a concern, not the comparison.

In June, 116 more companies had their earnings forecasts cut by analysts than raises – that's 20% of the S&P 500.  “There is some sagging in
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