Will We Hold It Wednesday – Dow 27,000 Again?

MORE FREE MONEY!!!

We'd better give some to Disney (DIS), who lost $5Bn in Q2 and has given up on releasing Mulan (live version) in theaters and will go straight to video in September.  The Covid-19 pandemic has closed Disney’s theme parks, virtually eliminated movie distribution and curtailed live sports, a key programming source for Disney TV networks. However, the world’s shut-in nature has helped the  company’s Disney DIS 0.81% + streaming service secure more than 60 million users in nearly nine months, a mark that Netflix took about eight years to achieve.  

In other playground stocks, WYNN also lost $5Bn this morning in their Q2 report and the company has $3.8Bn in cash left and already has $12.8Bn in debt.  The company is trading at about 50% of it's all-time high despite revenues being off 94.8% for the quarter and despite the fact that WYNN has only made about $2Bn in the past 5 years so a $5Bn loss is wiping out 10 years+ of profits.   

Of course the nice thing about WYNN going forward is it will be 10 years until they have to pay taxes again but it could be 100 years if they lose another 5Bn in Q3 and go bust – all this optimism assumes things will be back to normal next year but, between now and then, how much debt damage will be done.

Unfortunately, we simply don't have enough information to take a stab at WYNN for $8Bn when they are losing $5Bn a quarter.  What rational investor would pay $8 to lose $5 per quarter?  These losses are real, they have to either borrow more money next Q (you already owe $13 as a proud shareholder) or find more investors, which will dilute your position.  As fun as it would be to own the stock going forward, even if they make $500M/year, there's this debt to pay and $8Bn is still 16x FUTURE earnings – that's not a good deal by any stretch.  

Most stocks are like that at the moment and so is the entire market.  We're irrationally ignoring the the potential downside to a second wave of viral infections and we're still in the middle…
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